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October 2012, Vol. 135, No. 10
Current Employment Statistics seasonal adjustment and the 2007–2009 recession
Jurgen Kropf and Nicole Hudson
Jurgen Kropf is Division Chief, Division of Industry Data Development, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. Nicole Hudson is an economist in the same division. Email: kropf.jurgen@bls.gov or hudson.nicole@bls.gov.
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), obtains data on payroll employment, hours, and earnings from business establishments and produces industry-based estimates. The month-to-month movements in these estimates are timely indicators of the overall strength and direction of the nation's economy and, as such, are closely followed by policymakers and forecasters. Over-the-month changes in CES series are nearly always analyzed on a seasonally adjusted basis; therefore, accurate seasonal adjustment is an important component in the usefulness of these monthly data. Standard seasonal adjustment methodology relies heavily on the most recent 3 years to determine the expected seasonal change in employment for each month of the current year.
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