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November 2007, Vol. 130, No. 11
Industry output and employment projections to 2016
Eric B. Figueroa and Rose A. Woods
The most recent BLS projections have the labor force reaching 164.2 million by 2016, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing at 2.8 percent annually. How do these predictions affect specific industries? With the foundation for the macroeconomy laid, the BLS develops industry employment projections every 2 years, which in turn, are used to project growth for detailed occupations. This article examines and reports on the results for detailed industry employment and output projections from 2006 to 2016.
These results project total employment in the United States to increase by 15.6 million over the 2006–16 period, rising from 150.6 million to 166.2 million.1 This represents a 1.0-percent average annual growth rate, which is slightly lower than the 1.1-percent annual rate experienced during the 1996–2006 period, when employment increased by 15.9 million jobs. Nonagricultural wage and salary employment accounts for about 9 out of 10 projected jobs.2 Within this broad category, most growth is expected within service-providing industries, in which employment is projected to increase by 15.8 million, rising to 130.2 million by 2016. In contrast, jobs in goods-producing industries are projected to decrease by 732,300, falling to 21.8 million in 2016. The number of agriculture workers—which includes self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and wage and salary workers—is projected to decline by 173,100. Most remaining job growth is accounted for by a projected increase of 689,800 jobs among nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid family workers, raising the employment level to 10.5 million by 2016. (See table 1.)
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1 Total employment is a summation of nonagricultural wage and salary workers from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey combined with self-employed workers; unpaid family workers; and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers from the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS).
2 Nonagricultural wage and salary employment includes data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households; data on private households are from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
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